Someone call a doctor

This is going to be a bit of a random post for me, but it is something that has really caught my attention. Some of you know that I really like to invest and find studying businesses and companies a worthwhile hobby. Some of the more recent stocks to pique my interest have been in the healthcare field. UnitedHealth Group $UNH ( ▲ 1.53% ) had a huge drop due to the murder of their CEO and simultaneously a large accounting scandal. Meanwhile, there are younger and more agile companies that are using tools like AI to try and take market share.

As I have been looking into the current and future networks of healthcare, I have stumbled across some incredible trends.

As of 2024, 39 states including the state at the heart of it all, Ohio, have the healthcare field being their top employer.

Meanwhile, spending on healthcare has now replaced groceries and housing as a top expense in the average American household (excuse the poster’s language).

I am for good healthcare, and I am thankful that there are so many good people who have jobs.

From an investing standpoint, I cannot imagine this trend is going to change so investing in this space seems like a safe bet (not investing advice).

But from a human standpoint, I am so curious to know as to why this trend is occurring.

The most obvious answer is that we are simply getting older as a country, and a general rule of thumb is that you attend doctors more as you age.

A second answer that is someone obvious is that the US is largely overweight and obese, with 74% of people fitting in one of these two categories. No shame, but the reality is that those who are overweight or obese tend to visit the doctor more often.

A final reason that I sense this trend is growing is due to the fact that government is getting more and more involved in the healthcare system. We have seen this happen in college tuition. Once college loans became backed by the government, loan amounts went parabolic and now students are leaving school with ridiculous degrees and crippling debt.

As the government puts its fingers on the scales of healthcare, we are seeing a similar increase in healthcare costs.

Is this because doctors and hospitals and insurance groups are price gouging? I can’t answer that. But what I can answer is that much of the staffing happening within healthcare is happening in administration. In other words, it is not that we are getting a bunch of new doctors, we are getting many more people who can work alongside doctors and hospitals and pharmecy’s and insurance groups to make sure that they align with government policies. As government encroaches into healthcare, it becomes increasingly difficult to provide good healthcare without an army of administrators to make sure boxes are checked.

Quite literally, there is believed to be an upcoming shortage of physicians in this country and yet we cannot stop producing and supplying administrative staff.

We see a similar trend in government jobs and in schools; there is a huge rise of an administrative class in America.

One reason I am slightly concerned and am so interested in tracking this is that there are many in the AI space who believe that AI is going to directly compete for these administrative jobs. AI may soon have the capability to handle much of the workload placed on the managing and administrative class.

However, as already stated, healthcare will not be going anywhere and so those presently in and those with aspirations to enter into healthcare are (probably) safe. But, healthcare as we know it is going to continue to shift.

Hold on tight my healthcare friends! I pray that you are able to provide amazing care to those under your influence and that you yourself find encouragement.

I also hope that AI is able to unleash human creativity and productivity. With AI as our partner, my hope is that we can come up with new medicines, new procedures, and administrative clarity so we can do our best to help the people in our care.

I can’t say I see the future, but like in all situations, I can see a pathway of hope that we are heading to a bright future in healthcare.

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